Executive Summary

Precious metals markets opened the week of November 4-8, 2024, in a holding pattern as traders positioned for what promises to be one of the most consequential weeks for financial markets in recent memory. With gold opening Monday at $2,736.50 per ounce, just below Friday's close of $2,738.60, the yellow metal sits near its all-time high of approximately $2,790 reached in late October.

The standout story this morning is gold's remarkable year-to-date performance of approximately 33-35%, transforming an opening price near $2,030 on January 1 into current levels above $2,730. Silver has matched this enthusiasm with gains of 29-30% year-to-date, while the platinum group metals tell a different story entirely - platinum down 5-6% and palladium suffering losses of 13-23%.

Tuesday's presidential election stands as the week's defining event, with final polls showing the race "too close to call" across all seven battleground states. This political uncertainty has created a perfect storm for precious metals demand, with gold breaking its historical pattern of underperformance around elections.

Current Market Position

Prices as of Monday, November 4, 2024 at 9:00 AM ET

Technical Analysis

Gold: Consolidation Near Record Highs

From a technical perspective, gold's position just below its $2,790 record high presents a textbook consolidation pattern. Immediate support at $2,750 represents both a psychological level and recent breakout point, with secondary support at the $2,738-2,724 range. The 50-day moving average near $2,650-2,680 provides dynamic support well below current levels, confirming the strong uptrend remains intact.

Silver: Breakout Above Critical $30 Level

Silver's breakout above the critical $30 level after more than three years of consolidation has captured traders' attention. Currently trading in the $32-33 range, the white metal shows even more impressive momentum indicators, with its RSI near 70-80 suggesting overbought conditions that have yet to deter buyers. The gold-silver ratio near 84-87:1 continues its decline from higher levels, historically a bullish signal for silver when sustained.

Industrial Metals: Struggling with Secular Headwinds

Platinum and palladium remain the forgotten siblings of the precious metals family. Platinum trades around $950-980, struggling to reclaim the psychologically important $1,000 level, while palladium near $900-950 tests multi-year lows relative to gold. The automotive sector's accelerating shift toward electric vehicles continues to weigh on industrial demand for these metals.

Week Ahead Calendar

Trading Scenarios

Key Themes for the Week

Election Uncertainty Dominates

Tuesday's presidential election stands as the week's defining event, with final polls showing the race "too close to call" across all seven battleground states. The Emerson College surveys released over the weekend show margins within the statistical error bands everywhere that matters. This political uncertainty has created a perfect storm for precious metals demand.

Historically, gold has underperformed around elections compared to its long-term averages, but 2024 has broken that pattern decisively. The metal's 32% gain under the Biden administration already exceeds typical election-year performance. A Trump victory would likely bring promises of 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and universal baseline tariffs of 10-20%, potentially reigniting inflationary pressures. A Harris victory suggests policy continuity but with its own fiscal expansion plans.

Central Bank Double-Header

Thursday brings a double-header of central bank decisions that could reshape the precious metals landscape. The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting concludes with markets fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut. The Bank of England announces its decision at 7:00 AM EST, with markets expecting a matching 25 basis point cut to 4.75%. This rare occurrence of both major central banks easing on the same day could provide significant tailwinds for precious metals.

The Fed's challenge is particularly acute. Despite headline inflation creeping higher - October's 2.6% reading exceeded September's 2.4% - the central bank has signaled its commitment to policy recalibration. Core CPI remains stubborn at 3.3% annually, with shelter costs proving particularly persistent.

Geopolitical Risk Premium Persists

Beyond the immediate U.S. political drama, the geopolitical landscape remains fraught with risks supporting safe-haven demand. The Ukraine-Russia conflict shows signs of escalation rather than resolution. Middle East tensions have reached new heights with direct confrontations between Israel and Iran breaking decades of proxy warfare patterns. China-Taiwan tensions add another layer of complexity, with Chinese military incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone having more than doubled in 2024.

Central Bank Demand Remains Structural Support

Looking beyond this week's fireworks, central bank gold purchases continue providing structural support to precious metals. Led by emerging markets seeking to diversify reserves away from dollar assets, official sector buying has accelerated even at record prices. Turkey, India, and Poland have emerged as particularly aggressive buyers, viewing gold as insurance against currency debasement and geopolitical instability.

This official sector demand coincides with renewed retail interest, particularly in safe-haven assets ahead of the election. ETF flows turned positive in late October with approximately $3 billion flowing into gold funds, reversing months of outflows. Professional money managers have increased precious metals allocations, with some calling gold a "must-own" asset regardless of election outcomes.

Week Ahead Outlook

As precious metals markets brace for this historic week, several scenarios could unfold. A clear election result Tuesday night, followed by on-consensus central bank actions and stable employment data, might actually reduce volatility and prompt some profit-taking in gold and silver. Conversely, a contested election, hawkish Fed surprise, or shocking jobs number could send precious metals surging toward new records.

The technical setup favors continued strength absent a major surprise. Gold's consolidation near record highs typically resolves higher, particularly with strong fundamental support from central bank easing, geopolitical tensions, and inflation above target. Silver's breakout above $30 suggests a measured move toward $35, with some analysts targeting $42.60 based on the multi-year range breakout.

As Monday's trading begins with gold at $2,736.50, slightly below Friday's $2,738.60 close, the precious metals complex stands at an inflection point. This week will likely determine whether 2024's remarkable rally has further to run or whether profit-taking finally overwhelms the multiple sources of support. With an election, two major central bank decisions, and crucial employment data compressed into five trading days, volatility seems assured.

The only certainty as markets open this Monday morning is that by Friday's close, the investment landscape may look dramatically different. Whether that favors continued precious metals strength or triggers a long-awaited correction will depend on how Tuesday's voters, Thursday's central bankers, and Friday's labor market conspire to shape the narrative.