Executive Summary

Precious metals enter Thanksgiving week consolidating recent losses, with gold holding near $2,778 after a 3% November decline from October's record highs. Markets will parse Tuesday's FOMC minutes for December rate cut signals, with current odds at 79% for a quarter-point reduction. Wednesday's GDP revision and PCE inflation data represent the final major catalysts before month-end in this holiday-shortened week. Silver shows resilience above $31 support despite dollar strength, while platinum struggles near $1,000 and palladium remains under pressure at $1,114. Central bank gold purchases continue supporting the complex, with Poland leading November buying at 21 tonnes. Technical patterns suggest decision points approaching across all four metals as year-end positioning intensifies.

Current Market Position

Prices as of Monday morning, November 25, 2024

Week Ahead Calendar

Key Themes for the Week

The precious metals complex faces a pivotal week as markets balance Federal Reserve easing expectations against persistent dollar strength following the November 5 election. The FOMC minutes release Tuesday will provide crucial context for the Fed's unanimous November rate cut and forward guidance heading into the December 17-18 meeting.

Gold's remarkable 2024 rally, which saw multiple record highs above $2,700, has paused as the dollar index gained 4.5% post-election on expectations of growth-supportive Trump administration policies. The greenback's strength presents the primary headwind for precious metals near-term, though central bank buying continues providing fundamental support. November has already seen 53 tonnes of reported central bank gold purchases, led by Poland's strategic 21-tonne addition and China's return to buying after a six-month pause.

Geopolitical tensions remain elevated following Ukraine's largest drone strike on Russian territory last week and Putin's revised nuclear doctrine. These developments, combined with ongoing Middle East uncertainties, maintain a risk premium in precious metals despite recent de-escalation hopes that contributed to mid-November weakness. Markets will closely monitor any escalation signals that could reignite safe-haven flows.

The inflation narrative takes center stage Wednesday with October's PCE data, the Fed's preferred gauge. With headline CPI having ticked up to 2.7% year-over-year and core remaining sticky at 3.3%, any upside surprise in PCE could complicate the Fed's easing path. Current market pricing reflects confidence in continued disinflation, supporting expectations for 100 basis points of cuts through 2025.

Silver's industrial demand story strengthens as solar panel installations accelerate globally and electric vehicle adoption expands. The structural supply deficit of 215 million ounces projected for 2024 underpins the metal's resilience despite November's correction. Platinum and palladium continue facing automotive sector headwinds, though supply constraints limit downside potential.

Technical Analysis

Gold: Critical Support Test at $2,600

Gold enters the week at a critical technical juncture after failing to hold above the psychologically important $2,700 level. The immediate support at $2,600 represents the line in the sand for bulls, with a break below potentially accelerating losses toward the $2,530-$2,500 zone where major long-term support resides. Resistance overhead starts at $2,700, with more significant barriers at $2,720 and $2,790.

The daily chart shows gold consolidating around its 50-day simple moving average near $2,680, having successfully defended tests of this key technical level last week. Both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages remain well below current prices, confirming the primary uptrend remains intact despite November's correction. Momentum indicators have reset from overbought conditions, with the RSI recovering from oversold territory below 30 to approach neutral readings near 50.

Silver: Constructive Setup Above Support

Silver's technical picture appears more constructive, with the metal holding above critical support at $29.60 despite broader precious metals weakness. The ascending channel pattern on daily charts remains intact, suggesting the uptrend structure hasn't been damaged. A decisive break above $30 psychological resistance could trigger short-covering toward initial targets at $32-$32.50, where significant technical resistance clusters. The 50-day moving average near $31 continues providing dynamic support on pullbacks.

Platinum and Palladium: Seeking Direction

Platinum faces resistance at the $1,009 level that has capped rallies repeatedly since September. A daily close above this pivot would signal potential for a move toward $1,050-$1,100, where the next resistance zone lies. Support levels to watch on any weakness include $900 and the $845-$785 area where multi-year lows could attract value buyers.

Palladium's technical structure suggests a potential bottoming process after nearly two years of decline. The metal appears to be breaking above its falling channel, with initial resistance at $960 and more significant barriers near $1,048. The RSI at 48 indicates room for upside momentum to build, while high ATR readings signal increased volatility that often precedes directional moves.

Trading Scenarios

Economic Calendar Impact Analysis

Tuesday's FOMC minutes release carries the highest impact potential for precious metals this week. Markets will scrutinize discussion around the pace and extent of future rate cuts, particularly any concerns about cutting too aggressively. References to inflation persistence or labor market resilience could temper dovish expectations, supporting the dollar at metals' expense.

Wednesday's data deluge before the holiday requires careful navigation. The GDP second estimate's growth composition matters more than the headline, with markets watching for signs of cooling demand. PCE inflation represents the week's most critical release, as any upside surprise could shift the Fed narrative and boost real yields, a traditional headwind for non-yielding gold.

The shortened holiday schedule typically means reduced liquidity and potential for outsized moves on any surprises. Friday's early close following Thanksgiving limits participation, though overnight developments in Asian and European markets could create gaps. China's PMI data late Friday may set the tone for industrial metals heading into December, with manufacturing sector health impacting silver and platinum demand expectations.

Week Ahead Outlook

Precious metals face a week of consolidation and position-squaring ahead of month-end in thin holiday trading. Technical levels will likely dominate price action absent major surprises from economic data or geopolitical developments. Gold's ability to hold $2,600 support remains crucial for maintaining bullish market structure heading into December's FOMC meeting.

The fundamental backdrop remains supportive longer-term, with central banks on track for a third consecutive year above 1,000 tonnes of gold purchases and the Fed's easing cycle just beginning. However, near-term headwinds from dollar strength and year-end profit-taking could cap advances. Silver appears best positioned among the complex given tight physical markets and accelerating industrial demand, though it remains vulnerable to broader risk-off moves.

Traders should prepare for volatile but potentially range-bound conditions, with Thursday's closure and Friday's shortened session limiting opportunities. Focus on key technical levels and avoid overexposure ahead of thin holiday liquidity. The real directional catalysts likely await December's packed calendar including nonfarm payrolls, CPI data, and the FOMC decision.