Executive Summary

Precious metals enter the week of March 24-28, 2025, riding unprecedented momentum after gold's historic breakthrough above $3,000 per ounce last Monday. Trading at $3,030-3,040/oz this morning, gold has gained 17.8% year-to-date, while silver at $32.99/oz shows 15.52% YTD gains despite four consecutive days of modest profit-taking. The week ahead promises heightened volatility with Friday's critical Core PCE inflation data release - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge - alongside Thursday's final Q4 GDP reading.

While no Fed meeting occurs this week, speeches from FOMC members Bostic (Monday) and Kashkari (Wednesday) will provide crucial policy signals as markets assess whether the central bank can deliver its projected two rate cuts in 2025 amid persistent inflation concerns. Technical indicators suggest healthy consolidation within the broader bull market, with gold finding strong support above $3,000 and silver defending the $32 level. Central bank demand remains robust at 244 tonnes in Q1, while ETF inflows have reversed their multi-year outflow trend, adding structural support to prices.

Current Market Position

Prices as of Monday, March 24, 2025 at 9:00 AM ET

Technical Analysis

Gold: Consolidating Above Historic $3,000 Level

Gold's technical structure remains constructively bullish despite last week's consolidation from record highs. Immediate support lies at $3,000 psychological level, with stronger technical support in the $2,988-2,888 zone. The 200-day moving average near $2,300 provides major long-term support, though a decline to these levels appears unlikely given current momentum. Resistance targets include $3,078 near-term, with major resistance at $3,350-3,365 representing the next significant hurdle. Gold trades comfortably above all major moving averages, confirming the primary uptrend remains intact.

Silver: Extreme Oversold Creates Opportunity

Silver's technical picture shows remarkable divergence between price action and momentum indicators. Despite trading near multi-year highs, the RSI shows an extremely oversold reading of 24.8 - a rare condition often preceding sharp reversals higher. Key support rests at $32 psychological level, with major support clustered in the $28-29 zone where the 200-day moving average converges with multiple Fibonacci retracement levels. Resistance targets include $35.25 (recent highs), $37.265, and ultimately $40, which represents both psychological resistance and measured move projections.

Week Ahead Calendar

Key Themes

Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty

Federal Reserve policy uncertainty dominates market psychology as the central bank maintains its 4.25-4.50% rate stance while projecting only two cuts for 2025, down from earlier expectations. With Core PCE inflation running at 2.8% and expected to reach 3.1% this year, the Fed faces a delicate balancing act between supporting slowing growth (1.4% GDP forecast) and combating persistent price pressures. This stagflationary backdrop creates an ideal environment for precious metals.

Dollar Weakness Despite Fed Stance

Dollar weakness persists despite Fed hawkishness, with the DXY falling 5.47% over the past year to 98.27. The greenback posted its worst start to any year since 1973, tumbling 10.8% in the first half of 2025 as geopolitical risk premiums, fiscal deficit concerns, and the administration's "stop-start tariff war" undermine confidence. The World Gold Council attributes approximately 6% of gold's 2025 return to dollar weakness alone.

Central Bank Gold Accumulation

Central bank accumulation continues at a record pace with 244 tonnes purchased in Q1 2025, maintaining the streak of annual purchases above 1,000 tonnes for a fourth consecutive year. Poland leads 2025 buying with 67 tonnes through May, while China's central bank resumed purchases after a six-month pause. J.P. Morgan forecasts 900 tonnes of official sector demand for full-year 2025.

Geopolitical and Supply Concerns

Geopolitical tensions provide persistent safe-haven support with 59 active global conflicts creating baseline demand. Physical gold premiums in Asian markets reflect genuine scarcity concerns, with reports of emergency air shipments of silver to the U.S. replacing normal sea transport. ETF flows reversed after years of outflows, with global gold ETFs attracting $38 billion in H1 2025.

Trading Scenarios

Economic Calendar Impact

The economic calendar's impact on precious metals will crescendo toward Friday's Core PCE release, with early-week data providing important context. Manufacturing PMI weakness Monday could support precious metals by suggesting economic slowing that keeps Fed easing in play. Consumer confidence Tuesday offers insight into spending sustainability - weak readings typically boost safe-haven demand while supporting Fed dovishness.

Wednesday's durable goods data matters primarily for its GDP implications, with weakness confirming the slowing growth narrative that benefits gold. Thursday's GDP revision carries significant weight - any downward adjustment from 2.3% would fuel stagflation concerns and likely propel precious metals higher.

Friday's Core PCE represents the week's binary event risk. Markets have largely priced in a 0.3% monthly increase, making the reaction function asymmetric. An inline or soft reading (0.2% or below) could trigger a relief rally toward $3,100+ gold, while a hot print (0.4% or above) risks a sharp but likely temporary selloff.

Week Ahead Outlook

Precious metals enter the week well-positioned to extend gains following healthy consolidation from record levels. The absence of a Federal Reserve meeting reduces event risk, allowing markets to focus on incoming data for policy clues. Technical conditions have reset from overbought extremes without damaging trend structure, creating favorable risk-reward for new positions.

Friday's inflation data looms as the week's defining moment, though structural factors suggest any weakness should prove temporary. Central bank demand shows no signs of abating, with March purchases tracking toward another 100+ tonne month. ETF flows remain positive after years of liquidation, while geopolitical tensions provide a persistent bid.

Seasonal headwinds typically emerge in late March, but 2025's exceptional fundamental backdrop appears to overwhelm historical patterns. Physical premiums in Asian markets confirm genuine tightness, while reports of emergency silver shipments suggest supply chain stress. With investment demand recovering and industrial users scrambling for inventory, the stage appears set for continued strength through quarter-end and beyond, making any dips attractive entry points for investors seeking portfolio protection against mounting macroeconomic uncertainties.