Executive Summary

Gold tests critical support at $2,650 per ounce as the dollar surges above 105 following Donald Trump's decisive electoral victory and the Federal Reserve's second consecutive rate cut. The precious metals complex faces its most challenging environment since August, with silver, platinum, and palladium all posting sharp declines as risk-on sentiment returns to global markets.

Technical indicators suggest further downside potential as gold breaks below its long-term ascending trendline, while ETF outflows accelerate with SPDR Gold Shares recording their first monthly redemptions since April. This week's inflation data, including Wednesday's CPI report and Thursday's PPI release, will determine whether the Fed maintains its easing trajectory or adopts a more cautious stance heading into December.

Current Market Position

Prices as of Monday, November 11, 2024 at 9:00 AM ET

Technical Analysis

Gold: Technical Breakdown Signals Caution

Gold's technical picture deteriorated significantly following the election results. The metal currently trades between critical support at $2,650 and resistance at $2,700, having broken below its long-term ascending trendline last week. This breakdown, confirmed by heavy volume, suggests the intermediate-term trend has shifted from bullish to neutral at best.

Secondary support levels lie at $2,639 and $2,624, while any recovery attempt would need to clear $2,700 convincingly to negate the bearish technical damage. The 50-day moving average, which had provided reliable support throughout 2024's rally, now acts as resistance overhead. RSI readings have dropped from overbought conditions above 70 to more neutral levels, eliminating the positive momentum that characterized gold's rise to record highs above $2,800 in late October.

Silver: Industrial Metal Weakness Persists

Silver's technical position mirrors gold's weakness, with the gold-silver ratio widening as industrial metals underperform. The metal faces immediate resistance at $31.50-$32.00, with support at $30.00 psychological level. ETF flows confirm the bearish sentiment - iShares Silver Trust (SLV) holdings dropped to their lowest level since May 2020, down 0.4% on Thursday alone.

Week Ahead Calendar

Trading Scenarios

Key Market Themes

Post-Election Reality Check

The Trump victory's immediate impact on precious metals proved more severe than many analysts anticipated. Gold plummeted 2.67% to $2,676.30 on November 6, marking its sharpest single-day decline in months. The dollar's surge above 105 on the DXY index - its strongest gain since 2020 - created significant headwinds for dollar-denominated commodities.

Fed Independence Under Scrutiny

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's November 7 press conference delivered a masterclass in central bank independence. When asked if he would resign if Trump requested, Powell's forceful one-word answer - "No" - reverberated through markets. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75% as expected, but the focus remains on maintaining data-dependent policy.

Technical Damage Assessment

Gold's breakdown below its ascending trendline support represents the first major technical failure since the rally began. Combined with accelerating ETF outflows - SPDR Gold Shares recorded a 0.7% weekly outflow - the near-term picture has shifted from bullish to cautious. Market positioning data reveals institutional investors were already reducing exposure ahead of the election.

Week Ahead Outlook

This week's inflation data takes center stage as markets assess whether the Trump trade momentum can persist. Wednesday's CPI report could prove pivotal - any upside surprise would likely strengthen the dollar further and pressure precious metals toward lower support levels. Conversely, soft inflation readings might provide relief and spark a technical bounce.

Fed Chair Powell's Thursday evening speech offers another crucial catalyst. Markets will parse every word for hints about December's meeting and how the Fed views potential policy changes under the incoming administration. The current 65% probability of a December cut could shift dramatically based on this week's data and Fed communication.

From a technical perspective, gold's ability to hold $2,650 support becomes critical. A decisive break below would target $2,600 and potentially $2,550, while a recovery above $2,700 could stabilize the near-term outlook. Silver faces similar tests at $30.00 psychological support.

Longer-term fundamentals remain constructive despite near-term headwinds. Central bank demand continues at robust levels, while geopolitical tensions persist despite being overshadowed by election dynamics. However, the immediate path of least resistance appears lower unless this week's catalysts can shift the narrative away from dollar strength and growth optimism.