Executive Summary

Gold trades near record highs around $3,400 per ounce as markets navigate unprecedented tariff-driven volatility, while a packed economic calendar headlined by Friday's jobs report and Wednesday's GDP data could determine whether the rally extends or faces profit-taking. The combination of dramatic dollar weakness (-7.3% from January peak), persistent inflation concerns, and trade war escalation has created a perfect storm for precious metals, with analysts targeting $3,700 for gold by year-end.

Critical support at $3,200 for gold and $33 for silver will be tested this week as traders balance safe-haven demand against technical resistance and potential Fed policy shifts at next week's FOMC meeting. The convergence of record prices, extreme positioning, and shifting monetary dynamics has created a precious metals market unlike any in recent memory.

Current Market Position

Prices as of Monday, April 28, 2025 at 9:00 AM ET

Technical Analysis

Gold: Consolidation After Record Highs

Gold has pulled back to trade below $3,300, down 0.75% in early Asian trading, after reaching an all-time high of $3,424.41 just last week on April 21. The yellow metal has gained approximately 26% year-to-date, dramatically outperforming most asset classes amid what Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos calls "a process of rapid de-dollarization."

The technical picture shows gold locked in a four-day sideways consolidation pattern, with bulls defending Fibonacci retracement support levels while bears struggle to push prices meaningfully lower. RSI readings at 61 indicate ongoing bullish momentum without extreme overbought conditions, while the stochastic oscillator at 63 supports a mildly bullish bias. For the uptrend to resume with conviction, gold must establish acceptance above the $3,400 resistance level, with further targets at $3,500 visible on successful breakout.

Silver: Critical Support Test at $33

Silver faces its own critical test after a volatile April that saw the white metal surge early in the month before suffering a 9% correction following U.S. tariff announcements. Currently trading around $33.23, silver sits precariously above crucial support at $33.00, with the stochastic oscillator reading of 85 warning of overbought conditions. A decisive break below $33 could accelerate selling toward $31.50, while bulls need to reclaim $35.25 to reignite upward momentum.

Week Ahead Calendar

Trading Scenarios

Key Themes for the Week

Trade War Dynamics Reshape Markets

President Trump's "reciprocal tariff" regime implemented in early April has fundamentally altered precious metals flows and pricing dynamics. Average U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have skyrocketed to 126.5%, while China has retaliated with 147.6% tariffs on American goods. This tit-for-tat escalation has driven an estimated 2,000 tonnes of gold into U.S. vaults as traders exploit arbitrage opportunities.

Dollar Weakness Despite Rising Yields

The dollar has plunged 4.9% in April alone despite rising Treasury yields—an unusual decoupling that has spooked currency markets. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 4.5% last week, up from 3.99% just days earlier, yet failed to support the greenback as traditional correlations broke down. This toxic combination of dollar weakness and yield spikes has created what one trader calls "the perfect precious metals storm."

Central Bank Demand Remains Robust

Global central banks purchased 20 tonnes of gold in the latest monthly data, keeping pace for an annual total approaching 900 tonnes. Poland leads recent buyers as it targets 21% of reserves in gold, while China's central bank has increased holdings for four consecutive months. J.P. Morgan's commodity team notes that central bank demand is averaging 710 tonnes per quarter in 2025.

Fed Meeting Looms Large

While the May 6-7 FOMC meeting occurs next week, this week's data will largely set expectations. The Fed has raised its U.S. inflation forecast to 3% for 2025, a full percentage point higher than January projections, explicitly citing tariff pass-through effects. Markets currently price one to two 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end.

Week Ahead Outlook

This week's data deluge offers multiple opportunities for the narrative to shift, particularly if growth concerns intensify or inflation proves stickier than expected. Wednesday's GDP and Friday's jobs report serve as the week's critical pivot points, with any significant deviation from consensus likely triggering sharp moves.

The convergence of record prices, unprecedented trade tensions, and shifting monetary dynamics requires nimble positioning. While the structural bull case appears compelling—backed by central bank buying, industrial demand, and currency debasement fears—tactical traders must respect technical levels and near-term event risks.

For now, the path of least resistance appears higher for gold and silver, but only if key support levels hold through this week's gauntlet of economic releases. Gold's immediate fortune hinges on defending $3,200 support while building energy for an assault on $3,400 resistance. Silver's battle at $33 could determine whether the correction extends toward $30 or momentum rebuilds toward $35.25.